Call it the rumor that just won’t die.
Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshal noted this week that he believes Apple will eventually roll out a $99 iPhone model, along with a higher-end 32MB capacity model as well.
We believe Apple is preparing to launch at least two new iPhones in the June quarter with a high-end version (32GB) and a low-end version ($99). Our checks indicate a substantial build plan increase for the June quarter (potentially doubling quarter over quarter) from our current 3.1 million unit estimate for March ’09.
Marshal then goes on to predict that Apple will release a netbook or tablet sometime this year, and they’ll go on to sell about 900,000 units in 2009, and 2.2 million units in 2010.
And this, my friends, is why analysts are full of shit.
A $99 iPhone? Okay, you can make a case for it. But Marshal’s prediction about an Apple netbook/tablet epitomizes what’s wrong with financial analysts who try and make tech predictions. How in the world can Marshal honestly make a prediction about how many units Apple will sell of a product that hasn’t even been announced yet? We have no idea what products, if any, Apple might release in the future, let alone any information about price and specs. So to jump from a position of complete ignorance to a prediction about how many millions of devices Apple is going to sell reeks of typical Analyst bullshit. Have we learned nothing from Jon Stewart’s complete dismantling of Jim Cramer?
Marshall went on to write that he believes Snow Leopard will most likely ship in the third quarter of ’09, and that Mac sales will continue to climb. He subsequently raised his price target from $110 to $120.